Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MATIC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-16 1.936686e-01 0.231834 0.272726 0.319506 0.371252 0.426466 0.489560
2025-02-23 1.361012e-01 0.185895 0.243564 0.314067 0.396753 0.489554 0.600483
2025-03-02 9.113631e-02 0.144035 0.210542 0.297307 0.404675 0.530585 0.686820
2025-03-09 6.703156e-02 0.122180 0.197019 0.300304 0.433843 0.595901 0.802717
2025-03-16 4.615045e-02 0.099282 0.177725 0.292419 0.447187 0.641129 0.895022
2025-03-23 3.647479e-02 0.090497 0.175938 0.306508 0.488287 0.721298 1.031738
2025-03-30 2.608908e-02 0.077308 0.165161 0.306157 0.509082 0.775363 1.136485
2025-04-06 1.863749e-02 0.066827 0.156531 0.307315 0.530961 0.830558 1.243145
2025-04-13 1.392949e-02 0.060141 0.152838 0.314973 0.561541 0.897410 1.365633
2025-04-20 1.059932e-02 0.055193 0.151194 0.325202 0.595625 0.969268 1.495518
2025-04-27 7.843962e-03 0.050323 0.148750 0.333545 0.626767 1.037376 1.621234
2025-05-04 5.061232e-03 0.043389 0.140917 0.331934 0.642463 1.084018 1.718678
2025-05-11 3.411041e-03 0.039098 0.137940 0.338641 0.671512 1.150757 1.845560
2025-05-18 1.895696e-03 0.033320 0.130478 0.336627 0.686727 1.198100 1.946862
2025-05-25 6.702919e-04 0.025661 0.116506 0.321120 0.679517 1.212737 2.003277
2025-06-01 2.977956e-04 0.022656 0.113357 0.325460 0.704002 1.273391 2.123750
2025-06-08 5.167607e-05 0.018125 0.104602 0.317822 0.708210 1.304089 2.202677
2025-06-15 1.763167e-05 0.017493 0.107178 0.333097 0.750918 1.392312 2.363153
2025-06-22 1.860749e-08 0.014829 0.102542 0.332959 0.767395 1.441521 2.469089
2025-06-29 NaN 0.012686 0.098840 0.334316 0.786225 1.494344 2.580545
2025-07-06 NaN 0.011541 0.098340 0.342486 0.816936 1.565462 2.718669
2025-07-13 NaN 0.010778 0.099068 0.353334 0.852470 1.644250 2.868345
2025-07-20 NaN 0.009880 0.098943 0.362169 0.884568 1.718113 3.011569